Return to the policies of the Clinton era
America’s economic golden age was the final years of the Clinton administration, when unemployment was below 5% and the federal budget was in surplus.
This was no accident. When Bill Clinton was elected, the economy was slowly recovering from recession. President Clinton announced that we needed a plan to deal with the high deficits he had inherited from Presidents Reagan and Bush—a plan that included a tax increase on high income Americans.
Republicans claimed that any tax increase would cause a recession. Every Republican in Congress voted against the Clinton plan.
The plan worked because it was a credible plan to deal with the deficit. Business confidence, investment, and employment soared.
At the same time, President Clinton worked to make government more efficient. It was called “Reinventing Government,” and it resulted in the elimination of dozens of outdated programs and commissions. The number of federal employees declined to the lowest level in over twenty years.
The gains made during the Clinton era were lost almost overnight. The Bush administration pushed through huge tax cuts and spending increases. We fought an unnecessary war in Iraq, and added a drug benefit to Medicare, but no one was asked to pay one cent for either.
Vice President Dick Cheney told Treasury Secretary O’Neil that “Reagan proved that deficits don’t matter,” but he had failed to learn the lessons of the Reagan years. Deficits and unwise deregulation of the savings and loan industry had created a borrowing binge, a real estate bubble and crash, and a banking crisis that cost taxpayers over $125 billion. In New Hampshire, the late eighties was a time when most of our major banks failed, unemployment soared, and real estate values dropped by one third.
The George W. Bush years were a repeat of the Reagan years—high deficits, a trillion dollars borrowed from the Chinese, a real estate bubble, mindless deregulation of banks, and a crash. When President Obama took office, the budget deficit was projected to be over a trillion dollars, and the economy was losing 700,000 jobs a month.
When the economy is in decline, it is folly to increase taxes or decrease government spending, because either action takes money out of the economy. So Congress and the President did the opposite, with a stimulus plan that cut taxes and increased spending.
The plan worked. The economy stabilized, and has slowly added back 2 million of the jobs that were lost. Still, the recovery has been slow, and millions of people are looking for work. Where do we go from here?
Incredibly, some are calling for still more tax cuts. Multiple rounds of tax cuts have reduced federal tax receipts to about 15% of the economy, the lowest level in over fifty years. If tax cuts were an economic panacea, we would be in boom times now.
We face three major economic challenges. First, we are spending too many dollars overseas. Second, the deficit and the threats to the long-term stability of Social Security and Medicare make ordinary citizens fearful of the future, sapping consumer confidence, which in turn affects business confidence. Third, the real estate market has further depressed consumer confidence.
The steps needed to meet these challenges are obvious. First, we need a temporary, targeted tax credit for home purchases. The cost would be relatively small compared to the economic boost that would result if people could actually sell their homes.
Second, we need a credible, long-term plan to deal with the federal deficit and the long-term finances of Social Security and Medicare. President Obama has proposed such a plan with $4 trillion of deficit reductions over the next ten years.
Third, we need to address the currency manipulation by the Chinese government that has given China a huge price advantage over the US. The result has been the loss of millions of American manufacturing jobs. If necessary, we must take tariff action against Chinese imports.
Republican plans would be laughable, if they weren’t so dangerous. The Ryan Plan would cut taxes, while asking seniors to pay significantly more for Medicare. House Republicans want to cap federal tax receipts at 18% of the economy, even though federal spending over the past thirty years has averaged over 20% of the economy, so Republicans must be planning huge cuts in our social safety net, or permanent deficits.
For the sake of the nation, let’s hope the President is successful in passing a balanced plan that includes spending cuts, revenue increases by repealing tax cuts for the rich and the closing of tax loopholes, and a long-term fix for Social Security and Medicare.